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2008-08-15T02:44:00.000-07:00

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2008-08-14T19:29:00.000-07:00

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2008-08-04T11:52:00.001-07:00

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2008-06-02T12:01:00.000-07:00

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2008-06-02T11:55:00.000-07:00

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2008-06-02T11:34:00.000-07:00

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2008-06-02T11:18:00.000-07:00

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2008-05-26T09:34:00.000-07:00

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2008-01-17T06:47:00.000-08:00

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US Dollar and Equities Recover but Bond Yields Continue to Sell Off : What Does this Mean?

2007-07-25T22:46:00.000-07:00

It is earnings season and this appears to be cushioning the fall in both the US dollar and the Dow. Stocks clawed their way back into positive territory in the late US trading session after the market digested the more optimistic Federal Reserve Beige Book report. In contrast to the warnings and dour outlook given by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke last week, the report from the 12 Fed districts provided a breath of fresh air. According to the report, economic growth continued at a modest pace for most districts. Even though consumer spending for 4 out of the 12 districts was mixed or below expectations, business spending was strong. The same could be said about the real estate market, which was weak on the retail level but more active on a commercial level. At the same time however it leaves the market confused about who to believe since Bernanke’s comments could be a more current assessment of the economic situation and a more valid warning about the troubles ahead. Existing home sales fell 3.8 percent in the month June to the weakest level in over 4 years (this is the lowest since Nov 2002). The markets took the weaker numbers in stride because the previous collapse in the US dollar, bond yields and stocks essentially priced the disappointment in. Also, the average sales price increased for the first time in a year while supply remained unchanged. It is not time to get complacent just because house prices have increased. Although possible, we think that it is highly unlikely that Bernanke will be shifting his tone at the bottom of the housing market. The increasing number of late payments reported by American Express and Countrywide Financial is hardly the behavior of a healthy economy. New home sales are due for release tomorrow along with durable goods. The weak dollar could boost orders for big ticket items but new homes sales on the other hand could suffer the same fate as existing home sales. Even though the stock market licked its wounds and the dollar rallied strongly, bond yields continued to sell-off. Interest rate markets tend to be most accurate indicator of the overall market’s assessment of data. The fact that yields are lower suggests that there may be more bad news to come.

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2007-06-11T07:05:00.000-07:00

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2007-05-26T19:12:00.000-07:00

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2007-05-26T16:34:00.000-07:00

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Yen Seesaws As Inflation Remains Tame; Swiss Rally Blunted

2007-05-25T03:56:00.000-07:00

While the EURUSD remained quiet for most of Asian and European sessions contained to a 20 point range, the yen was the most volatile major of the night traveling nearly 70 points several times during Friday trade. The currency continues to be buffeted by carry trade and risk aversion flows as it first rallied when the Nikkei fell by -1.22% only to give up most of its gains as the Shanghai index managed to record yet another up day closing +0.69%. Trading in yen, which is usually quite subdued, was truly schizophrenic tonight as yen bulls managed to push the pair below the 121.00 figure only to be repelled by the bears who quickly rallied USDJPY back above 121.50.

Some of the action was caused by reports that North Korea managed to fire another missile into the sea of Japan, but with North Korean aggression now largely subdued by the Chinese, the geo-political risks in the Korean peninsula do not appear to be as grave as last year. Indeed this type of volatile price activity had less to do with newsflow is more likely to be emblematic of a top. However, calling a turn in pair has been a sucker bet over the past few weeks as Japanese fundamental data has failed to offer any support to the currency. Tonight was no exception as the best thing that could be said about the Japanese inflation data is that it did not decline on the core basis. Prices did fall at a slower pace signaling that deflation has bottomed out, but so far the indexes have offered scant evidence of rising prices. The report was especially surprising given the fact CGPI index earlier in the month recorded very strong gains of 0.6%.

Ultimately however, Japanese monetary policy is much more likely to be driven by the consumer spending data, rather than the CPI readings. BOJ officials recognize the necessity to raise rates in order to protect the yen from the incessant selling of the carry traders, but are constrained in doing so until Japanese wages and spending picks up. To that end next week labor market data and the Household spending reports may be crucial in providing clues for the timing of the next hike.

Finally, Switzerland's most important economic report - the KOF index of leading economic indicators - printed in-line with expectations at 1.96, higher than the 1.90 reading the month prior, but failed to reach the physiologically key 2.00 mark. As such it failed to deliver the knock out punch for Swissie bulls who hoped that a 2.0 number would assure the market that the SNB will hike rates to by 50bp instead of 25bp at its upcoming meeting in June. In the aftermath of the report EURCHF remained flat as traders took the data in stride, but clearly blunted the franc rally that has been developing over the past few days.

Dollar Rises On Unexpectedly US Strong Home Sales

2007-05-24T15:11:00.000-07:00

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar rose on Thursday after a report showed U.S. new home sales in April rose by more than expected and at their fastest pace in 14 years, reinforcing the view the Federal Reserve may not have to cut interest rates this year.

The greenback surged against the euro and wiped out modest losses against the yen after the report.

Analysts said the data was further evidence that the U.S. housing sector is on the mend, and that a solid U.S. economy will likely allow the Fed to leave interest rates on hold at 5.25 percent for some time to come.

"While one month's data doesn't mean the housing market is out of the woods, this number certainly feeds into a further recalculation of the near-term US outlook, with dollar positive implications," said Brian Dolan, director of currency research at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey.

The euro was trading down 0.28 percent at $1.3423, compared to $1.3445 ahead of the release of the data. The dollar was up 0.01 percent at 121.61 yen.

Eurodollar futures now perceive a chance of less than 50 percent that the Fed will lower interest rates from 5.25 percent by the end of 2007, in contrast to earlier this year when more than a quarter-point rate cut was fully priced in.

Euro: Looking for Clues to What the ECB May do Beyond June

2007-05-19T13:29:00.001-07:00

The Euro is slightly stronger today despite disappointing economic data. German producer prices increased by a meager 0.1 percent in the month of April compared to the market’s 0.4 percent forecast. The softer inflation number is another piece of evidence that the weakness in the US dollar and the strength of the Euro could discourage the European Central Bank from lifting interest rates beyond June. The reaction in the Euro was relatively muted because the June rate hike has already been fully priced into the market while the PPI number does little to clarify whether the ECB will or will not move again after that. As Trichet indicated last month, they will decide what to do after June in June. Their decision is data dependent and there are a number of key European data that could help shed more light on the monetary policy outlook next week. We are expecting the release of the German ZEW survey, the trade balance, industrial orders and the IFO survey of business sentiment. The market is looking for these indexes to hold steady thanks to the strong growth. We remain skeptical as the strong Euro and prospect of a rate hike could at least make analysts more pessimistic. Meanwhile Switzerland also has a busy economic calendar next week that could lead to some interesting movements in the Swiss Franc. They will be releasing producer prices, employment, the trade balance and KoF leading indicators.

Dollar Weakens as Chinese Yuan Revaluation Reduces the Need for Buying

2007-05-19T13:28:00.001-07:00

The world turned its focus to the currency market today as China made its second most significant revaluation move in two years. The central bank of China announced this morning that they were widening the trading band for the Yuan, increasing reserve requirements and raising interest rates. The last time China revalued its currency was in July 2005 and just as that move came a week after the US imposed a timetable for Chinese revaluation, this move comes in the midst of the G8 meeting and a week before a Chinese delegation arrives in the US for talks with Treasury Secretary Paulson. This politically well timed move is characteristic of most moves made by China. As a proxy for Asian strength or weakness, the latest announcement has sent the Japanese Yen rallying. It has also sent the US dollar lower since a wider trading band means that China will need to buy less US dollars. The stock markets around the world have yet to react and they may be looking to the Chinese market for clues. The announcement was made after the close of trading in Shanghai, which means that we will need to wait until Sunday night to see how Chinese investors really feel about this triple blow. In the meantime, the US dollar still ends the week stronger against most of the major currencies. The more promising outlook on the labor market has helped to offset the burden of higher gasoline prices and concerns about housing. The US economic calendar next week is light especially in the front end of the week. The only potentially market moving data are durable goods, new home sales and existing home sales on Thursday and Friday.

FX Radio: US Dollar Faces Durable Goods Next Week, Canadian Dollar Hits 30-Year High

2007-05-19T13:26:00.000-07:00

Written by Terri Belkas and John Kicklighter, Currency Analysts

Click Link to Listen to our Evening DailyFX Radio PodCast:

http://media.dailyfx.com/podcasts/FXRadioPM051807.mp3

Yen Continues to Drop After BOJ Stationary - How Low Will it Go?

2007-05-17T06:53:00.000-07:00

Another night of trade in FX, another drop in the Japanese yen. The lowest yielder in the G-3 universe was hurt tonight by less than stellar GDP results and persistent inaction on the part the BOJ. Japanese GDP printed at 0.6% vs. 0.7% expected and although this was the ninth straight quarterly increase it provided no reason for the BoJ to expedite its “low and slow” approach to monetary policy and as such disappointed speculators betting that a more robust number would compel the central bank to hike rates soon.

The BOJ then confirmed market’s expectations by stating in its headline assessment that “Japan’s economy is expanding moderately” with Governor Fukui, once again saying that “The Central Bank will adjust rates gradually”. It is precisely this “moderation” in growth that finds BOJ officials caught between a rock and a hard place. Despite strong export growth and corporate profits, wages in Japan remain stagnant leaving consumer demand moribund. Without the consumer, Japanese expansion remains decidedly lopsided towards capital investment and quite vulnerable to any contraction in global demand especially in US, its second largest export market. Already, signs of slowdown in CAPEX are evident in the latest Machine Orders data which printed –4.5% vs. projections of 1.5% gain.

In short, with Japanese consumer boxed in by tepid wage growth and rising energy costs (which have destroyed any appetite for new automobile purchases) and Japanese corporate sector facing a possible slowdown in one of its principal export markets, the prospect for a pick up in Japanese GDP growth appears minimal at best. Without the foundation of strong growth, the BOJ will not aggressively hike rates, as monetary officials continue to fear a relapse into deflation that plagued the economy for more than a decade.

With currency players sensing no change in monetary policy for the foreseeable future, the carry traders returned to the pair with vengeance and pushed USDJPY above the 121.00 figure by mid-morning London session. The question ahead, however, is will yen weakness persist or will the unit finally rebound? While current economic fundamentals provide yen bulls with little hope, the carry trade could come in for very quick liquidation if equity prices around the world begin to correct. Politics is yet another risk that the market may be under pricing. With yen at record lows against the euro and near yearly lows against the buck, Japan’s key trading partners in Europe and US are likely to strenuously object to the persistent devaluation of the currency which provides Japanese exporters with a considerable advantage over its EZ and US competitors. While, China has taken the brunt of criticism from US lawmakers so far, the weakness in the yen is beginning to aggravate US legislators especially in manufacturing centered Mid West. Should rhetoric escalate at the upcoming G-7 meeting, the one way carry trade may become vulnerable to a quick unwind. But until and unless such scenario unfolds, the yen remains the weakest link amongst the majors given the current economic landscape.

Euro Falls Victim to Dollar Strength

2007-05-16T14:27:00.000-07:00

Despite the fact that officials from the European Central Bank continued to stress their hawkishness, the Euro erased all of its gains and then some. The move did not come until the US session as the upside surprises to Eurozone data kept the Euro hovering around 1.36 until the open of the US session. The data indicated that French wage growth accelerated in the first quarter along with non-farm payrolls. Eurozone CPI remained unchanged at 1.9 percent, which was slightly stronger than market expectations. The ECB is set to release their monthly report tomorrow and we expect the details to contain the same hawkish tone. Growth and inflation data give us no reason to question whether the ECB will follow through with their plans to raise interest rates next month.

US Dollar Sells off after Weak Payrolls, but Reaction is Limited

2007-05-05T10:12:00.000-07:00

Even though non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations, the sell-off in the US dollar has been limited. Why was there such odd price action in the greenback? Two reasons. The first is the lack of interest in trading today. London traders were focused on squaring up ahead of their 3 day weekend while Japanese and Chinese traders have been out all week. Volume has been thin and because of that, the EUR/USD has not found enough buyers to push it beyond 1.3600. The second is the implications of the data on interest rates. Although the Federal Reserve is not expected to raise interest rates next week, they are expected to adjust their FOMC statement. Unfortunately with gasoline prices above $3 a gallon and moving higher, Team Bernanke will probably continue to put inflation ahead of growth. They will look at the sharp drop in jobless claims yesterday and argue that the labor market will most likely improve in the months to come. However we will need to see jobless claims remain low for a few more months before we feel comfortable drawing the same conclusion. In the meantime, jobs are important and the lack of significant job growth last month should not be ignored. Not only did we see only 88k jobs created, but the unemployment rate increased from 4.4 to 4.5 percent as the household survey reported 468k job losses last month. Based upon the household survey, we have actually seen more job losses than growth since the beginning of the year, which does not paint a picture of a healthy labor market. People are also working and earning less as average hourly earnings and weekly hours drop. Taking this into context, we have the risk of a softer retail sales number next Friday. There are a number of important US economic data and central bank meetings next week so there will not be a shortage of market volatility. Based upon the weak US data and the prospects of another interest rate hike by the European Central bank, the Euro should extend its move once more traders return to the markets next week.

from: http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/US_Dollar_Sells_off_after_1178315050130.html?engine=rss&keyword=article

Euro: A Repeat of December 2004?

2007-05-02T18:49:00.000-07:00

In yesterday’s Daily Fundamentals, we had pointed out that the peak in the EUR/USD in December 2004 was triggered by a series of disappointing economic data. Today we get a sense of déjà vu as we are beginning to see the same scenario unfold once again. Earlier this week, German retail sales dropped significantly and this morning, we saw German unemployment and Eurozone manufacturing PMI all fall short of expectations. Originally expected to drop by 40k, unemployment instead only dropped by 9k, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 9.2 percent. The Eurozone PMI manufacturing survey was also originally expected to increase, but it remained unchanged. Aside from the German retail number, these disappointments are not significant. Nonetheless, it does indicate that the combination of a strong Euro and the value added tax increase is beginning to have a negative impact on the Eurozone economy. We are already looking for more Euro weakness than strength though in the short term, that would be dependent upon US data. However if the mild disappointments start to become serious ones, then we could see a major trend reversal in the EUR/USD. In the meantime, ECB officials remain committed to raising interest rates. ECB member Liebscher said today that the central bank needs to remain vigilant to ensure price stability. Over in Switzerland, even though the Swiss franc is stronger, manufacturing PMI also fell short of expectations.

From: http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Euro__A_Repeat_of_December_1178142558155.html

Don't be fooled by the Dollar

2007-04-30T15:52:00.000-07:00

DON’T be seduced by reports of the dollar’s great value against the Pound – a study out this week discovers the US is STILL one of the most expensive places to head on holiday.

The Post Office Holiday Costs Barometer found that although the exchange rate is great for picking up electronics and jewellery at a discount, everyday necessities are often expensive.

Consumers may save on iPods, laptops and designer clothes but the added cost on essentials like water, beer and suncream may eat away the savings.

The Post Office checked prices of ten basic items in favourite holiday destinations and found the America was the MOST expensive, with costs totalling £69.41.

The cheapest destination was Bulgaria, whose total cost for all ten items was only £16.86 – a £52.55 difference.

A 1.5-litre bottle of Evian water is almost three times more in the US than in any other country surveyed, and is 15 times more expensive than in Egypt.

But the States does have the second cheapest prices for rental cars.

Greece has the most expensive cup of coffee at £2.14 a cup, while the least expensive bottle of beer can be found in Egypt.

In Thailand, a bottle of Coke and a daily newspaper are only 48p each.

In the euro zone, Portugal’s shopping basket total of £33.65 put the country in fifth place overall but made it noticeably cheaper than the other euro countries surveyed.

Spain and France were almost twice as expensive.

Greece was the cheapest holiday resort in the Eastern Med, at £41.06 for the ten items, just pipping Cyprus and Turkey at the post.

Post Office head of travel services Kevin McAdam said the Holiday Costs Barometer was a useful guide to pricing abroad but warned: “You have to be careful when comparing costs in different countries.

“It all depends on their relative cost of living and it pays to be aware that favourable currency rates – like those currently available for the US dollar – do not necessarily mean a destination will be cheap.

“It’s useful to compare the costs across Europe. Our barometer proves that one currency does not mean one cost.”

From: www.thesun.co.uk

Rising euro may turn dollar again attractive

2007-04-28T16:52:00.000-07:00

NEW YORK, April 28: The last time the US dollar slid to a record low against the euro it quickly recovered, but this time may be different.

The dollar slid to a new record low against the euro on Friday, with the euro quoted above $1.3680, the highest since the currency's launch in 1999.

When the euro climbed above $1.36 in 2004, it limped above that level for five days, and then embarked on a year-long decline.

But unlike late 2004, when the Federal Reserve was in the early stages of a two-year rate rising cycle which provided some support for the dollar against the euro, US economic growth is now slowing and the Fed may even cut interest rates later this year.

At the same time, economies in the Europe and Asia seem to be weathering the US slowdown well, suggesting that interest rates in those regions may continue to move higher, drawing yield-hungry investors away from the dollar.

“I think we’re going to see $1.38 (euro/dollar) without too much trouble here,” said Joseph Trevisani, chief market analyst at FX Solutions, an online currency dealing platform based in Saddle River, New Jersey.

The immediate trigger for the dollar’s fall on Friday was a report showing that the US economy grew at its most sluggish pace in four years during the first quarter.

But the writing had been on the wall for months now, as the dollar’s appeal to yield-hungry investors was on the wane.

Two-year US Treasury notes are yielding just half a percentage point more than government debt of the same maturity in the euro-zone, the lowest interest rate differential since late 2004, and well below a peak of around 1.8 percentage points in the middle of 2006.

By contrast back in late 2004 differentials were actually widening in the dollar’s favour as yields on euro-zone debt were falling on worries that the strong euro would strangle the European economy.

In 2004 Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the European Central Bank, was also warning that the euro's rise was “brutal” and “unwelcome”, a signal that it could be risky to chase the currency higher.

In contrast eurozone officials appeared almost nonchalant on Friday. The Eurogroup’s Jean-Claude Juncker said he was not concerned about the level of the euro, which has also hit repeated record highs against the yen in recent weeks.

And the contrast with 2004 does not end there. This time around the market appears to have greeted the euro’s spike to a fresh record high with a big yawn.

One-month implied volatilities on euro options were trading around their lowest level in 5 months on Friday.

At just above 5 per cent, volatility is little more than half the level that is was in late 2004.

Many analysts reckon that the dollar’s slow but steady grind lower is set to continue. Slowing growth and the prospect of lower interest rates is likely to rekindle concerns about the United States’ ability to finance its gaping current account deficit, which requires $2 billion a day to plug.

Over the coming three to six months, the euro looks on course to rally to $1.40 or higher, said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy in New York for Wells Fargo.

Stubbornly high readings on inflation are another reason to bet against the dollar, some investors reckon.

“Growth is slowing and inflation is rising. The Fed cannot raise rates because growth is slowing ... that’s negative for the dollar,” says Bill Lipschutz, portfolio manager at Hathersage Capital Management, a currency hedge fund.

The implicit price deflator, one gauge of inflationary pressures in Friday’s GDP report, jumped at a 4.0 per cent rate in the first quarter, the biggest jump since early 1991.

This week the dollar fell to its lowest level ever against a basket of major currencies tracked by the Fed since 1973.

However the dollar’s decline has been unevenly distributed.

Since a peak in mid October it has fallen 9.5 per cent against the Australian dollar, 8.0 per cent versus the euro, 7.0 per cent against sterling, but is virtually flat against the yen.

Some longer-term investors say the dollar’s sharp decline is starting to make it look attractive again against European currencies like the euro and sterling.

“Let’s face it, the dollar has had a good sell-off, but in terms of valuations it is now looking to be one of the cheaper currencies out there,” says Roddy Macpherson, investment director of global strategy at the UK-based Scottish Widows’ Investment Partnership, which oversees $200 billion of funds.

Macpherson says he reckons the dollar is around 20 per cent undervalued against the British pound and the euro.

But most shorter-term investors don’t have the stomach to bet on a dollar rebound just yet, especially ahead of some blockbuster US data releases next week, including readings on inflation and a monthly jobs report.

More weak data “would effectively give a “green light” to continue selling USDs and quite likely the catalyst to break above the 1.3700 threshold in the EUR/USD,” said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York.—Reuters

From: http://www.dawn.com/2007/04/29/ebr15.htm